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A quick, controlled transition from fossil fuels to green energy and a more socially just economy

In order to avert climate crises that risk The 6th Extinction, we must take full advantage of the time available – starting now.

We want to drive home the urgency of addressing this crisis, but pair it with the opportunity that investment in a clean energy economy offers – there is more upside than just surviving.

The Situation Overview

  • Temperature and Ocean Acidity can trigger trip points that are many, and interact.
    • We cannot predict, well, how things will go if trip points are hit
    • On October 8, 2018, the UN IPCC SR15 special report on stopping before 1.5 degrees C changed perspectives
      • By re-analyzing previous work, and taking a look at some understandings of trip points and interactions, a Strong Recommendation was made to try hard to never go above 1.5 Degrees C.
        • The best recipe they offer for staying below 1.5 Degrees includes
          • Decarbonization (reduction in emission rate)
            • 2018 emission rates are to be cut in half by 2030
            • emissions must go to net zero by 2050.
            • anything that can improve on that would be helpful
          • Drawdown (pulling CO2 out of the air) to reduce from 410 ppm to 350 ppm, and eventually to 280 ppm.
            • This would start normalizing air to pre-industrial age levels
          • Possible backup plans of using SO2 as sun shield in atmosphere
        • Trip points and stressors mentioned:
          • Loss of albedo, especially in the arctic/antarctic
          • New emissions of methane from areas of permafrost
          • High emissions of methane from fracking operations
          • Partial Loss of O2 generation in oceans
          • Partial Loss of coral
          • Partial Loss of fish populations
          • Partial Loss of kelp forests
          • Partial Loss of plankton populations
          • Possible loss of high-altitude clouds that would increase
          • Increases in forest destruction, such as in Indonesia, and Amazon, and in near-arctic areas.
          • Population is a multiplier for almost everything
      • Albedo Affects Warming
        • Clouds
        • Ice
      • Greenhouse Gas-Based Warming
        • Fossil Fuels – A primary source of human input
        • Biological Sources
          • Loss of Forests
          • Loss of Carbon in Forest Soil
          • Loss of Agricultural Top Soil

Oregon Response

In the right direction

  • We are encouraging amendments
    • to add a solid definition for Best Available Science to these bills
    • to make sure the PUC request for power to aid decarbonization is addressed
  • Cap and Invest HB 2020 on OLIS
    • With the right tuning this can be a powerful Decarbonization tool, and a funding source for Climate Justice. See Detail Page Cap and Invest HB 2020
  • PUC (Public Utility Commission) adjustmentss based on SB 978
    • Decarbonization HB 2855 on OLIS
      • SB 978 studies recommended that the PUC be allowed to encourage Decarbonization as a benefit to customers. This bill would implement that under the premise of using Best Available Science within the normal IRP planning process of the PUC.
    • Justice for Low Income Groups HB 2242 on OLIS
      • SB 978 studies recommended that the PUC be allowed to develop rate structures to support various income groups, especially in light of needing to make a carbon to clean transition.

In the wrong direction

    • Would change the membership of the Oregon Fish and Wildlife Commission, the citizen-led body charged with overseeing the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife. It would prescribe members from industrial constituencies and lessen the ability for input that represents the protection of this Public Trust for the future.
    • Would allow the use of Bonneville electricity to meet Oregon’s Renewable Portfolio Standard, and therefore reduce pressure on adding new green power sources.
  • Opposition to 2020 from Representative David Brock Smith, Co-Vice Chair of the Joint Committee on Carbon Reduction.
  • Carbon bill could hurt agriculture businesses By Richard Hanners Blue Mountain Eagle
    • The article talks about the cost of diesel fuel for agricultural purposes being affected by carbon fees. While this is true, it is also true that much agricultural machinery should be able to be upgraded to run on electricity. When that happens, cost will go way below cost of best previous prices on diesel fuel.
    • It is possible that some exemptions for agriculture that would sunset at an appropriate time would ease the issue of interim cost of fuel.
    • Sen. Cliff Bentz, R-Ontario, told the Oregon Cattlemen’s Association at their Dec. 1 convention in Bend that the cap-and-trade carbon bill’s goal is to reduce state carbon dioxide emissions from 55 million tons per year to 10 million over 30 years, but the savings amount to only 0.125 percent of global emissions.
      • That is approximately true. Any state or country at Oregon's size will only be one piece of the global problem. But Sen. Bentz went on to recognize:
      • “The value of this bill is its ability to convince other people to follow Oregon’s lead. And this means we have to get it right. It’s not going to save the world. What saves the world is other people saying, ‘Hey, Oregon figured out how to do it.’”
      • This is indeed the benefit of leading the charge on solving the global problem. It encourages all the other participants to step up to the plate, too.
a_quick_controlled_transition_from_fossil_fuels_to_green_energy_and_a_more_socially_just_economy.txt · Last modified: 2019/03/18 16:50 by admin